The Pac-12 broke precedent on Selection Sunday, sending four teams to the NCAA men’s tournament when recent history indicated that a maximum of three would be invited.
Yep, this could have been a lot worse, folks.
The structure for NCAA bidding is established in November and December, during the non-conference matchups that create ceilings and floors in the important NET rankings. And the Pac-12 was atrocious in the first few months of the season.
It won a mere 63.6 percent of games against outside competition — the lowest non-conference win rate by far among power leagues.
On four previous occasions in the 12-school era, including last season, the Pac-12 has won less than 70 percent of its non-conference games. Each time, no more than three teams advanced to the NCAAs.
This season, the Pac-12 has lost four games to the Southwestern Athletic Conference, five to the Mountain West and six to the Big 12 on its staggering path to that 63.6 winning percentage.
But despite horrific showings in the games that matter most, the Pac-12 managed to snag a fourth NCAA bid—just barely.
Arizona State was the second-to-last team on the field and will face Nevada (and head coach Steve Alford) in a First Four matchup on Wednesday.
USC was one row above the Sun Devils, clinching the No. 10 East.
These bubble teams joined powerhouses UCLA and Arizona, who took second place in the West and South, respectively, to create the Pac-12 quartet.
Winning four bids is nothing to celebrate, but it certainly brings a sigh of relief to the conference office and campuses across the area.
At one point during the season, the Pac-12 was leaning towards two paltry pitches.
In that sense, the Pac-12 stands out as one of the winners of Selection Sunday.
Our look at the landscape…
Winner: Pac-12 South. The reference to former football divisions allows us to better outline the imbalance that existed throughout the season. Wood’s power was concentrated in LA and Arizona.
Loser: Pac-12 North. Washington, Oregon, and Bay Area schools were 0-for-6 in NCAA bidding, but at least they had a football season to remember! (Most of them, anyway.)
Winner: UCLA. The Bruins were seeded in the same row (No. 2) as Arizona, but received the coveted seeding in the West. Win twice in Sacramento and they would go back (back) to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Loser: Arizona. The Wildcats beat UCLA twice, won the conference tournament, and had a better winning collection than UCLA. But their losses were second-rate and resulted in a Southern assignment, with a Louisville regional.
Winner: Unpredictability. At this point in the analysis, let’s remind the jubilant UCLA fans and the disheartened Arizona fans that matchups are more important than location.
Loser: North Carolina. The historic program, which reached the national championship game last year, did not make it to the NCAA field. This is a drop that is not often seen, especially in the realm of blue bloods. And guess what? The Heels declined an invitation to the NIT.
Winner: The Big 12. The best league in the country during the regular season was justly rewarded by the committee with seven bids – or 70% of its members. Yes, the SEC and Big Ten are sending eight teams to Madness, but they have way more schools (14) than the Big 12.
Loser: San Diego State. The Aztecs received a No. 5 seed, which was fully justified. But they drew with an extremely dangerous opening opponent at No. 12 Charleston and would have to face Virginia in the second round.
Winner: Mountain West. For the second consecutive year, the league received four bids – as many as the Pac-12 and just one less than the Big East. The goal now is to avoid a repeat of the 2022 elimination, in which the conference went 0-4.
Loser: Oregon. The Ducks missed the NCAAs for the second straight season, a double whammy that only came once under head coach Dana Altman (in 2011 and 2012, his first two seasons in Eugene). The NCAA failure comes despite a roster that looks fit for the NBA.
Winner: State of Arizona. We thought the Sun Devils deserved a bid due to their quality winning streak (Arizona, VCU, Creighton and Michigan) and raw number of away wins (12), an overlooked part of the process. It is the first NCAA offer since the 2019 season for head coach Bobby Hurley.
Loser: Little Boys. Only five at-large berths were awarded to teams from conferences that don’t play major college football: four for the Big East and one for the West Coast (Saint Mary’s).
Winner: USP. The Trojans had to wait until the regional final was revealed to hear their name called and must face a Hall of Fame coach in the first round (Michigan State’s Tom Izzo). It doesn’t matter. It is their third straight NCAA appearance.
Loser: Texas A&M. The Aggies finished 2nd in the SEC during the regular season and lost the conference title game (to Alabama) but received the 7th seed. Our advice: play with someone else next time. Texas A&M’s off-conference schedule was ranked No. 243 nationally in Pomeroy’s advanced metrics.
Winner: Alabama. The football powerhouse is the #1 seed overall in the NCAAs after a stellar season under head coach Nate Oats. But the heat will be intense with so much focus on star Brandon Miller and the murder case involving the Crimson Tide. (Miller has not been charged with any crime.)
Loser: East Regional. With Purdue, Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee as the top four seeds, the East is sorely lacking in star power. Its biggest draw is No. 5 Duke, under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer.
Winner: West Regional. The most intriguing regional, and not even close. Top-ranked Kansas has coach Bill Self returning from a hospital stay, while No. 13, Iona, boasts a rather famous frontman (Rick Pitino). The bottom half of the bracket features No. 2 UCLA and No. 3 Gonzaga, who are expected to qualify in the Sweet 16 just two years after playing one of the greatest games in tournament history.
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