New poll shows Vallas and Garcia as favorites

chicago mayor election

A new voter opinion poll reveals that Paul Vallas and Representative Chuy Garcia top the list of nine candidates for Chicago mayoralty.

The top two in next month’s poll will compete in a runoff election on April 4.

And despite spending several million dollars on campaign advertising in recent weeks, incumbent Lori Lightfoot has slipped to fourth place behind teacher union official Brandon Johnson.

Researcher Matt Podgorski of political consultancy M3 said: “The big takeaway we saw is that Chuy Garcia and Paul Vallas basically traded points. Now I have Paul Vallas in first place at 26% and Chuy Garcia in second at 19% .”

Garcia was the subject of a negative attack ad run by Lightfoot this month.


The West Side congressman has yet to start airing his own TV commercials. A Garcia campaign leader told FOX 32 Chicago News that once Garcia goes on the air, he plans to stay until Feb. 28, the day the first-round votes will be counted by Chicago Election Commissioners.

Johnson, whose campaign relies heavily on money from the teachers’ union, appears to have benefited from an aggressive paid media agenda. It jumped from just 3.2% in the December M3 survey to 12.2% this week.

Mayor Lightfoot’s campaign spending did not stop the decline in support found by the poll. It fell from 14.5% in December to single digits this week: 9.8%.

Multi-millionaire businessman Willie Wilson also lost ground in the M3 survey. Wilson had 13.1% in December; 8.5% this week.

The M3 poll was conducted Jan. 15-17 ahead of Thursday night’s mayoral debate. A total of 531 likely voters participated, including 49 who completed a Spanish version of the questions. It is accurate within plus or minus 4.25 percentage points.

A spokesperson for Lightfoot’s campaign attacked the poll calling the race “complicated”.

The Vallas campaign says the research proves what they already knew.

“Paul’s message of putting Chicago’s crime and safety first is clearly resonating with voters, and our campaign has the financial resources and support needed to continue to drive that message home over the next six weeks,” said the strategist. Vallas campaign chief Joe Trippi.

Mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson released a statement, saying, “The people of Chicago are ready for new leadership and we are proving that there is a better way forward… The city has turned the page on Mayor Lightfoot and business politics as It’s time to move Chicago forward and usher in a new dawn of people-first policies.”

Candidate Willie Wilson also released a statement, calling the poll “garbage”.

The M3 researcher defended the integrity of the results based on how likely voters were selected.

“All likely voters in the City of Chicago were given an equal chance to be contacted. The response group was carefully balanced by race, region, gender, age, language, and even how they voted in 2020 for president,” Podgorski said.

Analysis by Policy Editor Mike Flannery

With Paul Vallas in first and Chuy Garcia in second, they would have a better chance of competing in the April 4 runoff.

“The big takeaway we saw was that Chuy Garcia and Paul Vallas basically traded points,” said Podgorski.

In a poll taken earlier this week ahead of Thursday night’s debate, Vallas had 26%, Congressman Garcia 19%, veteran teachers union official Brandon Johnson 12.2%, with Mayor Lightfoot down to 9. .8% in fourth place.

While the mayor’s negative attack announcement may have contributed to Garcia’s loss of nearly nine percentage points since last month, it apparently didn’t help her. Lightfoot has lost nearly five percentage points since last month’s M3 survey.

“Now we see Brandon Johnson rising to third place at 12%, while surprisingly incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot has dropped to fourth place,” Podgorski said. “In fact, in the survey, we specifically asked if you’ve seen, read or heard any information about the candidate recently and those who said ‘yes’ she was 30% submerged in terms of how that influenced your opinion of her.”

Lightfoot may have been hurt by last week’s revelation that his campaign made inadequate attempts to recruit students and faculty at the city’s public schools and colleges.

Vallas celebrated these results by sharing them with supporters via email. Mayor Lightfoot, not so much. A spokeswoman called the research deeply flawed – a claim rejected by Podgorski.

Fox 32 Chicago will host a Mayor’s Forum on Thursday, February 9th.

Full details on the survey can be found in the PDF below:

#poll #shows #Vallas #Garcia #favorites


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